E-commerce is shaping up to be one of the fastest growing industries in the world. Consumers are simply drawn to the sheer convenience of being able to find practically anything online and have it delivered to their doorstep in a few clicks. The turn towards online shopping was further accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic that deprived consumers of the chance to shop in-store. 

From here, it seems only natural that Europe experienced a significant e-commerce boom in 2021 – with the growth rate of online stores outpacing offline growth by 6 to 16 times. E-commerce activity also reached new highs around peak season, with holiday shopping starting as early as mid-October. 

As an online business, consider adopting data-first strategies to help meet consumer demand in this busy holiday season. Use data to better understand your delivery processes and identify any points of friction in your supply chain setup. For more information, download our report HERE. 

Will 2022 see a repeat of 2021's trends? This year, our very own data and research arm, Parcel Monitor, released a report on the e-commerce landscape in Europe and their forecast for Peak Season 2022. In this report, Parcel Monitor provides insights into how 2022 shaped up in relation to the e-commerce trends of 2021 and what you can expect going forward. 

A global trend observation: Falling parcel volumes in 2022

Our analysts predicted a much quieter peak season this year based on the market trends of 2021. Despite the surge in e-commerce, the period before Peak Season 2021 only saw a 69.7% increase in parcel volume compared to the 93.9% surge in 2020. During the Black Friday/Cyber Monday (BFCM) weekend itself, parcel volume growth in the UK fell sharply from 97.4% in 2020 to 45.4% in 2021. A similar trend was also reported in Germany, which experienced an 11% drop from 90% in 2020 to 79% in 2021. 

Implications: A quieter holiday season ahead? 

Parcel Monitor attributed the sharp drop in parcel volumes to a change in shopping methods. 2021 saw a rise in the number of consumers returning to physical in-store shopping, given the gradual lifting of COVID-19 restrictions. 

However, we believe that these signs are not merely symptomatic of a shift in purchasing mode, but also a larger downward economic trend. According to Parcel Monitor, e-commerce parcel volumes are expected to fall by approximately 12.9% during this year’s BFCM weekend. 

This slowdown can be attributed to the double threat of the Ukrainian crisis and rising inflation, which have greatly outpaced the lingering effects of COVID-19. A recent survey by McKinsey found that the primary concern of 53% of consumers in the EU was the rising cost of living, with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine coming in second at 15%. 

In these times of economic uncertainty, consumers are unlikely to splurge on anything outside of basic necessities, marking a sharp decline in their purchasing power. 

From these observations, we think that Peak Season 2022 is likely to remain a stagnant one. Despite these gloomy predictions, however, companies can still strategize to ensure that profit margins remain minimally affected. To find out more about what you can do in times of economic uncertainty, download our “Peak Season 2022 Report - Strategies for e-commerce businesses” here.